|
Virtual Project Brokering |
by Diego Borgani, from Bahia Blanca, Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina
1.
PRODUCT
Music-searching
service
2.
DESCRIPTION
A person dials a four-digit number on a cell pone and points it at a source of recorded music, be it the sound system in a nightclub or a commercial on television. MiD’s computers filter out the background noise and compare the audio sample with a database of 1.6 million songs, a process that takes less than a second. The service then fires off a text message to the phone, identifying the song and the artist. Once MiD users are back at their computers, they can log on to the web page to see a list of the tracks they have identified, complete with links to online merchants that give MiD a sales commission. Also instant sales of CD’s, ring tones or even downloads of entire songs and video could be available
3.
PROCESS
The
process starts when a consumer hears a song or a piece of music broadcast over
the radio that he or she would like to buy but can not identify. That is a gap
in major radio stations, with playlists often lacking track indentification by
deejays. Provided the consumer subscribes to a service, all that’s necessary
is to dial into the service with a cell phone or fixed-line phone to enable a
fingerprint to be captured via the telephone handset. Audio is extracted, via
MiD’s front-end applications. These applications interface with the
fingerprint application interface, which computes a whole series of bit strings
called “sub-fingerprints” derived from the audio clip, each lasting several
milliseconds. 256 of these sub-fingerprints, corresponding to approximately 3
seconds of audio, are sufficient to uniquely identify a song. Then this
fingerprint block is sent to the fingerprint-matching server. The server
responds with either a unique song ID (a 64-bit number) which is transmitted to
a MySQL relational database server that supplies information on artist, title
and album to the fingerprint application interface.
A
minimum fingerprint-matching server system consists of 1 master and 1 slave PC.
Such a system is already capable of processing up to 25000 songs with an
average song length of about 4 minutes, and of processing in real-time up to 600
audio channels in parallel. Additional slave PCs can easily be added to the
system, each increasing the system capacity by 25000 songs.
4.
BACKGROUND AND PROSPECTS
Music electronic distribution begins since new technologies allow to
bring music
to the mass public. This improves with the dramatic increase of internet
users, cell-phones and added value linked contents. The size of musical
catalogues are also increasing, specially from playlists obtained “pier to
pier” (e.g.: Napster, Kazaa).
Music-searching
service represents an analogy with text-searching engines in internet. Music
identification software (e.g.:”audio fingerprinting”) or acoustic
identification have recently solved this alternative, taking advantage of hard
and soft developing, each time faster and powerfull.
Shazam
U.K. launches the service August
1st 2002
Since the introduction Shazam received millions in funding, closed deals
with portals like MSN, attracted more than 500,000 users in the U.K., announced
expansion into Germany (together with Vodafone) and are now eyeing the Austrian,
Dutch and Italian markets.
In
partnership with Philips technology, Musiwave (a subsidiary of Gracenote U.S.)
offers the music identification service in Spain (Amena) and Portugal (Optimus).
No
word on the rest of the world, so this is still an interesting arena for South
America
II
- BUSINESS MODEL.
General
Manager.
System
Administrator
Legal
and Accountant Consultant.
Publicity
and Marketing.
System
Integrator
1. CONSUMER ANALYSIS
Orientated to popular music, world wide distributed and available to
every kind of audience.
Music lover, with free time and interested in catalogues managing,
cellular phone user.
Interest begins since it is possible to access only a little portion of
catalogues, people cannot retain all what they have listened. The existence of
erroneous data from “pier to pier” sharing also leads to the necessity of
organize your own catalogue. Moreover there are albums that users do not know
but they would be interested in if they could get them. The challenge will be to
recognize the people preferences from well defined searching procedures.
To sum up, we talk about the band between 15 and 24 years old.
2. GLOBAL DEMAND ANALYSIS (source INDEC Argentina)
Market: Republica Argentina
Population: 36 millions inhabitants
Hypothesis: Potential cell phones users (15 to 70 years old): 23.5
millions.
Cell phones on service: 11 millions, representing 46.8% of population
hypothetically using cell phones.
Potential users of added value services on cell phones located in the
band between 15 to 24 years old: 6.4
millions.
The 46.8% of this band represent 3 millions of potencial customers and it
is a discreet figure taking into account that it will be more concentration of
devices in this group comparing with the other one from 25 to 70 years old.
3. PROJECT DEMAND (source
INE, España)
Music identification services are recent and there are not accurate
statistics. Nevertheless we do know
that in Spain (cultural affinity) a monthly average of 500.000 services
were registered during the first semester. A comparative analysis as
follows:
Market: Spain
Population: 41 millions inhabitants
Hypothesis: Potential cell phones users (15 to 70 years old): 30
millions.
Cell phones on service: 30 millions, representing 100% of population
hypothetically using cell phones.
Potential users of added value services on cell phones located in the
band between 15 to 24 years old: 5.6
millions.
The 100% of this band represent 3 millions of potential customers.
Scope
5.6 millions of users making a monthly average of 500.000 phone calls
requiring the service during the first semester.
Then 3 millions of users making 267.857 phone calls per month in
Argentina or 3.214.286 phone calls per year.
Taking into account a 90% effectiveness in the recognition: 2.892.857
phone calls per year.
Standard Engagement
The standard engagement allows 30 phone calls per minute and if them are
made in a band of 12 hours (normal), we have 21.600 phone calls in a day,
648.000 in a month and 7.776.000 in a year.
This extra performance supports any seasonal increment, if it comes into
fashion, due the innovation or market break out in the future.
Whit reference to the project lifetime (only 5 years due product
characteristics), a prudent background is adopted, this means a saturated and
still cell phone market, without growing population.
Anyway we must consider that 11 millions users are from September 2004,
meanwhile in September 1999, 3.6 millions were registered (dramatic increase).
Since the second year a share market of about 25% is abandoned to end the
project with only a 50%, in the conservative hypothesis that the competitors
can reach the new technology (even though Mid Bahía Blanca still keeps
the advantage of being the first and moves into the linked contents market).
Project Demand (x 1000
phone calls)
Year |
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
Global
demand |
2.893 |
2.893 |
2.893 |
2.893 |
2.893 |
|
Share |
|
100% |
75% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
Project
demand |
2.893 |
2.170 |
1.446 |
1.446 |
1.446 |
For
the present project other incomes due linked contents and trade through the web
page are not taking into account.
4. SUPPLY ANALYSIS
This service has no local supply. Nevertheless a quick response from
competitors is expected. Specially those that already operate in cell phones
linked contents, most important as follows:
Ringtones MP3
MTV LA
Ubbi Móvil
Toing
Moviclips
Operating through Telephone Companies:
Telefónica de Argentina (Telefónica de España), recently purchasing
Movicom (Bell): 5.5 millions customers (Unifon now Movistar). 50% share market.
Telecom (Stet Italy and France): 2.9 millions (Personal). 26%
Compañía Telefónica del Interior (América Móvil): 2.6 millions
(CTI). 24%
Total 11 millions of users.
5. PRICES.
Share.
Call
price
U$ 1
Carrier
share
U$ 0.30 30%
Database
/ Soft U$
0.55
55%
Income of Mid Bahia Blanca
is collected monthly from the carrier.
BUSSINESS STRATEGY
Main
condition is to go first into the market, together with an aggressive publicity
campaign in youth media all over the country. This will improve the recognition
and the empowerment of the brand.
Of
course in a short term competitors will appear, being phone operators or
companies already at linked contents. The first case resulting in a double risk
since it can affect the availability of one of the resources. Actually the phone
company can manage the project by itself (Amena case in Spain), it is not a
great investment and it means an added value. Nevertheless, the model “system
integrator” providing the service to a telephone carrier is possible
(“Shazam” U.K.). Alternatives supporting this model as follows:
1)
To provide the service through an “Added Value in Telecommunications”
operator (also known as “0609” lines).
2)
To be a partner of a unique telephone company which will be very well identified
by his innovative and original service, standing out from competitors, and
provided with the advantage of a ready made product supported by the registered
owners.
Anyway
in this country it is a fact that linked contents are not operated directly by
telephone companies.
To
sum up, a very important thing is that once the company can step on music
identification market, other options of added value will be able to exploit, as
selling and delivery of songs, ring tones download, videos, wall papers, etc..
(Statistics in Europe show that 20 from 100 music identification phone calls
lead to a purchase of other products). In fact, this is the actual opportunity
for this project. In such a dynamic sector like being technology oriented to
entertainment, to move into the market with an innovative product will allow to
go on providing a whole chain of services.
III TECHNICAL SURVEY
Standard
Engagement (recommended).
Database size: 250.000
fingerprints.
Each server array can
andel about 30 calls/minute.
Configuration: 1 master
server, 11 slaves (one slave is standby in case a live server fails).
Total
time to install: approximately 6-8 weeks.
System
Process Flow Detail.
Incoming call from customer.
Fingerprint is extracted and sent to local database.
From local database fingerprint passes to servers where they are
recognized and sent back to the
user as an identified song.
Round-trip time: approximately 10 seconds.
IV FINANCIAL SURVEY
a)
FIXED ASSETS
Software |
U$D 70.000 |
Hardware (including import taxes 50%)* |
U$D 90.000 |
Data
Base |
U$D 19.000 |
TOTAL
FIXED ASSETS |
U$D
179.000 |
*Avoided if system is installed in a free zone (eg.: General Pico, La
Pampa Province)
b)
ACTIVE ASSETS
(To
afford 30 days displacement)
TOTAL
ACTIVE ASSETS |
U$D
5.125 |
2) OPERATING COSTS (annual)
Software maintenance
U$D 10.500
Data base maintenance
U$D 51.000
Total
Operating Costs
U$D 61.500
3) OPERATING EXPENSES (annual)
General
Manager
U$D 32.000
Tax
rate and services
U$D 18.000
Promotion,
publicity and marketing
U$D 90.000
System
Administration and Maintenance
U$D 7.000
Legal
and Accountant Consultancy
U$D 4.000
Total
Operating Expenses
U$D 151.000
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PHONE CALLS QTY |
|
|
2893000
|
2169750
|
1446500
|
1446500
|
1446500
|
YEAR
|
|
0 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
INCOMES |
|
|
433.950 |
325.463 |
216.975 |
216.975 |
216.975 |
COSTS
|
|
|
-61.500 |
-61.500 |
-61.500 |
-61.500 |
-61.500 |
EXPENSES |
|
|
-151.000 |
-121.000 |
-121.000 |
-121.000 |
-121.000 |
DEPRECIATION
(hardware) |
|
|
-12.000 |
-12.000 |
-12.000 |
-12.000 |
-12.000 |
GROSS
PROFIT
|
|
|
209.450 |
130.963 |
22.475 |
22.475 |
22.475 |
TAX
RATE |
|
|
-73.308 |
-45.837 |
-7.866 |
-7.866 |
-7.866 |
NET
PROFIT
|
|
|
136.143 |
85.126 |
14.609 |
14.609 |
14.609 |
DEPRECIATION |
|
|
12.000 |
12.000 |
12.000 |
12.000 |
12.000 |
FIXED ASSETS |
|
-179.000 |
|
|
|
|
|
ACTIVE ASSETS |
|
-5.125 |
|
|
|
|
|
RESIDUAL
VALUE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
58.435 |
CASH
FLOW |
|
-184.125 |
148.143 |
97.126 |
26.609 |
26.609 |
85.044 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Sold qtys. refer to market survey |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Call price (share) U$D 0.15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Costs and expenses refer to
financial survey |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Investments refer to financial
survey |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Residual value by economical
method |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Depreciation period 5 years
(hardware) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Tax
rate 35% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*Discount rate 25% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENT
NET VALUE |
|
48.939 |
|
PB
RATE |
41% |
|
|
Email your Project - Approval and posting fee: $19 per year. - If your project is rejected there are no appeals. A short explanation will be provided about the reasons for rejection. |
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Buenos
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2005 Netic Infoservices